The card shows how Trump, Putin and Xi could cut the globe

The awareness of US President Donald Trump to Russian President Vladimir Putin to try to end war with Ukraine comes in the middle of jockeying among leaders for influence spheres while China seeks to exercise its influence. A card by Nowsweek Designates how this world chess game could take place.

A trump Call with Putin in March And the diplomacy of the shuttle led by the Americans in Saudi Arabia has shown the determination of the American president, even if the war rages despite talks that give a 30-day cease-fire proposal and an agreement to stop the strikes of the Black Sea.

But the process of implementing war echoes the Yalta conference in 1945 between the American, British and Soviet leaders who preceded the Division of the Cold War of Europe, according to Vessela Cherneva, deputy director of the European Council for Foreign Relations (ECFR).

“Yalta spoke of great powers that decide on the future of Eastern Europe,” she said Nowsweek. “This is what it looks like in Ukraine now.”

“Deciding the future of Ukraine without Ukraine also decides the future of Europe without Europe,” she added.

The discussion on the future of Ukraine sparked comparisons from another world war meeting, according to Stefan Wolff, professor of international security at the University of Birmingham in England.

He said Trump's refusal to give Ukraine security guarantees is akin to the appeasement of the Nazi leader Adolf Hitler at the Munich conference in 1938. Wolff thinks that the current American president considers the world as the one in which large powers sculpt the spheres of influence in which they do not interfere.

“We are probably going to see superpowers divide the globe between them – China and the United States – and it is still a little difficult what will happen with Russia, whether a player in its own right or even more dependent on China.”

The balance of Russia in Eastern Europe

Munich was also the scene of excoriation by the American vice-president JD Vance of the democracies of the EU for the accusations of silence freedom of expression and not to stop mass migration as well as his opening requests more open to the right-wing populists who were hailed by the allium of Putin, the former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev.

The speech followed the US Secretary for Defense, Pete Hegseth, claiming that the restoration of the territory of Ukraine on the borders before 2014 was not realistic and that European countries had to do more for their own defense because the United States had to counter China in the Pacific.

Cherneva said that the position of the Trump administration suggests that East Europe could be thrown, which is worrying given the balance of Russia in the domestic policy of countries such as the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Romania and Poland.

She said Russia is trying to undermine democracies in Eastern Europe and that “works on the movement of companies to a new consensus, which now seems very comfortable in the Trump era”.

Putin's spectrum has exceeded demonstrations and elections in several Eastern European countries in recent months.

Moscow is accused by pro-Western politicians of interfere in a referendum and a presidential ballot of the EU in Moldova, while in neighboring Romania, the elections were canceled by pro-EU leaders after the course of the first cycle of the far right Calin Georgescu led the first round in the midst of Russian-breakdown.

In several European countries, demonstrations have taken place against governments which are considered to take a more pro-Kremlin line.

Demonstrators in Slovakia have taken up the streets of Bratislava to protest against an amendment to a bill restricting NGOs compared to the law of foreign agents in Russia in the country whose chief, Robert Fico, was criticized by opponents for his ties with Moscow.

March has seen demonstrations in Serbia, where President Aleksandar Vučić has close ties with Moscow, while the perceived hand of the Kremlin in Hungarian politics attracted the counterpoup against Prime Minister Viktor Orban, one of the allies closest to Putin.

Further south, the agitation in Georgia has seen demonstrations against the Georgian dream group in power, whose criticism accuse him of links with Moscow and which consolidates his grip on the country of the Southern Caucasus with strategically important access to the Black Sea.

China and Central Asia

Central Asia could be an area of ​​competition between Russia and China.

As a sign of diplomatic intention, Putin received a warm welcome in Mongolia last September during her first visit to a member of the International Criminal Court (ICC) since he issued an arrest warrant against alleged war crimes. Mongolia is based on Russia for fuel and electricity and China to invest in its mining industry.

Wolff said that it was significant that the first overseas trip, Chinese chief Xi Jinping had followed the cocovio pandemic for the former Soviet Republic of Kazakhstan, whose chief, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, said against the invasion of Putin of Ukraine

“There has always been a concern in Astana that [it] This could be Russia's next expansion target, “said Wolff, the country holding a large Russian population.

“Kazakhs can be a little more skeptical about Russia and Ukraine, because they know that the Chinese are clear that they will not let Russia play with northern Kazakhstan where there is an important Russian population.”

China, Trump and the Western hemisphere

Trump has repeatedly said that he wanted to acquire Greenland and take control of the Panama Canal, angry Canada by describing it as a 51st potential state and renamed the Gulf of Mexico to reflect his American philosophy.

Wolff said Trump is rebroadcasting the Western hemisphere, but can face a boost from China, especially in Latin America.

“It will probably encourage Trump to focus even more on the Western hemisphere and abandon everything he thinks of being unnecessary responsibilities he has elsewhere,” he said.

But Trump has not yet won what he wanted from Putin concerning an agreement on Ukraine and if Moscow cannot conclude an agreement with the United States, his dependence on China will increase.

However, major titles on Ukraine have been replaced by Trump's resettlement with its trade war with China, which is now faced with 145% tariffs. This could potentially weaken Putin because Xi can further align her economic interests about Europe.

“China will then have to weigh its relations with Russia in relation to its relations with the European Union,” said Wolff.

There is also the question of whether there will be an arrangement between the United States and China above Taiwan, the autonomous island that Beijing considers a rebellious region which must be reunited with the continent, forcibly if necessary.

The last military exercises of the Chinese army of the Oriental theater around Taiwan this week amplified the question of what Trump would do if Beijing invades.

Wolff said Xi was perhaps not ready to take Taiwan by force, because there are other hot spots in the Southern China Sea where the United States would potentially be forced to intervene against Chinese belligerent, like the Philippines.

“You may have these tacit arrangements where the Chinese grow and the United States do not grow back,” said Wolff. “Then it becomes clear that there is an implicit recognition with which the Southern China Sea is the China with which to play.”