A historic rivalry game will decide a Frozen Four berth

Michigan hockey is one win away from a third straight Frozen Four appearance after upsetting North Dakota in the opening round of the NCAA tournament. But the opponent standing between the Wolverines and a ticket to the final weekend of college hockey is one that has kept UM fit all season: Michigan State.

The Spartans won the regular season series, three games to one, before an overtime victory at Munn Ice Arena denied Michigan a Big Ten Tournament three-peat and gave MSU its first title. But Sunday night's game is the biggest yet, not only of the season, but one of the most important in history.

Michigan vs. Michigan State is the most played rivalry in college hockey, with 342 matches of all time. But Sunday marks the first time the storied programs have ever met in the NCAA Tournament.

Although MSU won the final four meetings of the season, both programs were relatively evenly matched. Netminder Trey Augustine, the one-time UM commit, was the differentiator for the Spartans. He stopped 65 of 68 shots in the final series of the regular season against Michigan and was solid in the Big Ten Tournament Championship Game. The other freshman star for Michigan State is Artyom Levshunov, who was both the Big Ten Freshman of the Year and Big Ten Defenseman of the Year in addition to being on the All-Big Ten First Team.

The Spartans play an entertaining, fast-paced style that results in games with high odds. They entered the postseason scoring 3.89 goals per game while allowing 3.00 goals. Expect quick transitions from defense to offense through the neutral zone that will test Michigan's discipline, especially during the second period with the long changeup.

The Spartans and Wolverines are both among the most penalized teams in college hockey, so special teams could be a factor on Sunday. UM would certainly appreciate any opportunity to showcase its best power play in the country, but it's important to note that the referees blew very little whistle in the St. Louis region's opening games. The opening minutes will show whether the team opts for a let-them-play approach or a stricter approach given the heat of the rivalry.

MSU has become a revitalized program since the hiring of former U.S. National Team Development Program coach Adam Nightingale and has an influx of young talent that should keep them competitive for years to come. But where they've hurt opponents (including Michigan) the most this season is their depth. Michigan State's fourth line was the difference in the Duel in the D, part of a season-long theme for a Spartan squad that gets more production from its bottom two lines than almost anyone in the country. On the contrary, UM is very dependent on its top six attackers.

And Michigan's already thin defensive depth could be further tested if Seamus Casey is unavailable. The offensive-minded sophomore missed the final 40 minutes of the NoDak win for unknown reasons, and Brandon Naurato declined to provide a forecast for Sunday.

The stakes couldn't be much higher: Sunday's winner will advance to the Frozen Four, which begins April 11 in St. Paul, Minnesota. The Wolverines are looking for their 10th national championship and to end a 26-year drought. The Spartans hope to continue a special season with another victory over their bitter enemy in the state.

Boston College or Quinnipiac await in the Frozen Four at the Xcel Energy Center; the other side of the bracket includes Boston University and Denver. But that's for another time. All that matters on Sunday is achieving what would be an unforgettable rivalry victory.

Michigan vs. Michigan State: Watch or stream

WHO: Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 4 overall seed Michigan State

What: 2024 NCAA Tournament – Midwest Regional Finals

When: Sunday, March 31 at 5:30 PM CDT (6:30 PM ET)

Where: Centene Community Ice in Maryland Heights, Mo.

TV: ESPN2

Current: Watch ESPN