When is the next UK heat wave?

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A deadly heatwave sweeping across Europe and record-breaking temperatures expected in the coming days are in stark contrast to the weather the UK faces this week with continued wet and windy conditions.

With prolonged showers in the UK, the Met Office has predicted uneasy conditions to continue over the next few days.

Temperatures are expected to exceed 40C in parts of Spain, France, Greece, Croatia and Turkey in the coming days.

And in Italy, with temperatures hitting 40C again on Wednesday and a red alert issued for 10 cities, including Rome and Florence, the Italian Meteorological Office predicted it could rise to 48.8C.

Burning mercury in the country has led to the death of a 44-year-old man, while a British tourist visiting Rome’s Colosseum passed out, triggering health warnings.

Ground temperatures, different from what the weather forecast says, recorded more than 60 degrees Celsius in parts of Spain on Tuesday, satellite records showed.

Average ground temperature is usually close to air temperature, but can sometimes be higher in summer because the soil can trap more heat. However, surface temperatures of 60C are very high and rare in Europe.

As Europe faces its hottest summer on record in 2022, fears are growing that the human-caused climate crisis will repeat the extreme heat of previous years, followed by scorching heatwaves, devastating droughts and raging wildfires.

More than 61,000 people have died as a result of the heat wave, a recent study found.

Heat map showing extremely hot areas in black

(European Union, Copernicus Sentinel-3 image)

Experts attributed the heat wave in Europe to an area of ​​high pressure, named after an underworld monster from Dante’s Inferno Cerberus.

Areas of high pressure occur as the world experiences record temperatures that have triggered devastating heat waves in several countries, such as the United States, which have recently experienced extreme weather.

The southern United States has been gripped by extreme heat, while the northeast has suffered severe flooding.

On the other hand, after having the hottest June on record, the UK is being affected by other weather patterns that bring more rain and bring temperatures down, experts noted.

Dr Melissa Lazenby, climate change lecturer at the University of Sussex, explained that the current deployment of high-pressure systems further south was a major contributor to the divergence.

The current European heat wave is driven by stable atmospheric conditions with fixed high-pressure features, explained Dr. Lazenby.

Europe is not particularly directly affected by El Niño, she added, although it is not yet possible to determine all the drivers and exact contributions to the current heat wave.

High pressure systems and climate change are therefore likely the main causes of this heatwave, she said.

Currently, the UK is not experiencing the same high temperatures as the rest of Europe, Dr Lazenby said, and this is mainly due to the current deployment of high-pressure systems located farther south that do not cover the UK. Provides stable atmospheric conditions for enhanced warming and subsequent heat waves.

If you’re in the UK today, you’ll notice higher winds that have nothing to do with high pressure characteristics. So we don’t allow heat wave conditions to explain why UK temperatures are not unusually warm like the rest of Europe.

A woman fanning herself in Madrid, Spain.

(AP)

Britain may be relieved to escape the heatwave experienced by European countries, but extreme temperatures have taken their toll this summer.

The Met Office said Britain’s record-breaking June temperatures were caused by background warming in the Earth’s atmosphere caused by human-induced climate change.

The waters around Britain and Ireland have also experienced unprecedented extreme ocean heat events threatening coastal ecosystems.

Experts expected July to be the hottest month of the year as more heatwaves are expected ahead. However, current changes indicate that there is no imminent heat wave threat to the country.

But the sharp rise in temperature in the Mediterranean region serves as a stark reminder that the climate crisis is a complex system with potential feedback loops and unpredictable events, experts say.

The European heat wave we are seeing in the summer of 2023 somewhat mirrors what has been observed over the past few years in science. That said, Europe has been warming much faster than other continents in recent decades, and this trend is particularly pronounced in northwestern Europe, including the UK, said Dr Leslie Mabon, lecturer in environmental systems at The Open University.

While it’s difficult to pinpoint a single factor responsible for warming Europe so rapidly, Mabon said, an important driver behind this warming trend is carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels.

Until we rapidly cut fossil fuel emissions, extreme events like the heat wave we are currently seeing in Europe will become more and more likely, Dr. Mabon said.

The differences we are seeing in the degree of warming globally and between European regions are also a stark reminder that Earth’s climate is a complex system.

The higher the degree of warming, the greater the risk of feedback loops or unexpected events. This is why we must urgently reduce fossil fuel emissions and limit the extent of global warming at all costs.

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