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According to an independent modeling group, the COVID-19 pandemic is “nearly stable” in British Columbia, with infection rates slowly declining from the peak of the fourth wave in September.
Health
The pandemic in British Columbia is “almost stable,” says an independent modeling group.
The COVID-19 infection in children under the age of 10, which surged in September, has “significantly reversed,” the group said.
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so report According to the BCCOVID-19 modeling group released Wednesday, new cases have declined by about 2% per day, the largest decline in the Interior Health, Fraser Health and Vancouver Coastal Health regions.
Sarah Otto, an epidemiologist at the University of British Columbia, said:
Predictions predict that cases will decline across the state over the next three weeks, including the northern part, which had the highest infection rates in the state in recent months, the northern part, which overwhelmed hospital beds and overwhelmed the healthcare system. increase.
According to the report, higher vaccination rates and safety measures such as indoor masking and area restrictions implemented in Northern Health and Interior Health areas helped stabilize the number of cases.
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According to Otto, the data also show that the COVID infection in children under the age of 10, which surged in September, has returned to within the general population.
Researchers haven’t figured out exactly what caused the surge in primary school earlier this year, but last year it wasn’t. Otto hypothesized that the delta mutant was more contagious and could be due to the fact that these children were not vaccinated.
“The rise began in the first week of school, suggesting an increase in pre-school contact rates, including meeting friends on the last day of summer vacation and perhaps for the first time in months. “She said.
Despite the overall positive news, the modeling group warned that as people become more relaxed with safety measures, COVID infections could increase again. As with the evolution of more contagious variants, cold, rainy weather that drives people indoors is also a risk.
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The number of cases is still high, with an average of about 600 people per day. Otto said it wasn’t time to be happy.
“Currently there is no buffer. We see a decline, but it’s a slow rate. If you relax too much, you just return to exponential growth.”
A modeling group consisting of the University of British Columbia, Simon Fraser University, the University of Victoria, and government-independent private sector scholars also reiterated the need to vaccinate more people.
In areas with a vaccination rate of 95%, about one-quarter of COVID-19 cases occur per person in areas with a vaccination rate of 75%.
The announcement of the British Columbia vaccine card in late August increased vaccination rates, and when the card came into effect on September 13, vaccination rates declined. Approximately 80% of British Columbia’s population is currently vaccinated, with children under the age of 12 accounting for half of the remaining unvaccinated segment, the group said.
Health Canada is now Review of Pfizer’s application to use vaccines in children ages 5-11 ..
on Tuesday, BC has announced that booster shots will be available to all British Columbia residents within the next few months. Prioritize indigenous peoples over the age of 70 and people with immunodeficiency.
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