NCAA Bracketology: The Final Projection of the Division I Men's Bracket

Unfortunately, the time has now come for the final projection of the bracket before the selection on Sunday.

Sunday's four games did not change the makeup of the NCAA Division I Tournament field, although Princeton's loss to Penn pushed the Tigers closer to a top-eight finish. But Penn State has a top-10 win and Princeton doesn't, and the Tigers' loss at Brown last month is the worst loss of any team in the field, outside of the two likely play-in participants.

The final at-large bid likely goes to Penn State and Penn. The Quakers have a top-5 win (at Duke) and Penn State has a top-10 win (Maryland on a neutral field). Both have four wins in the 11-20 range (Penn State beat Cornell, Yale, Michigan and Villanova, while Penn toppled Cornell twice and also knocked off Villanova and Harvard). Both have a loss outside the top 20. Penn State has the RPI advantage.

The assumption here is that Penn State gets this spot back, although it's a closer call than expected.

One adjustment to the morning picture was flipping Princeton to play Penn State for the second year in a row while sending Georgetown to play Maryland. Would the committee prefer to avoid a first-round rematch or a regular-season rematch (Maryland beat Princeton in February)? Or does it even matter?

If all eight ranked teams in the final projection are correct, regardless of order, that means all at-large selections will play at home and every automatic qualifier will be unranked. Just an unusual quirk.

The following is based on RPI data available on the afternoon of Sunday, May 5.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFICATIONS (9)

Team	W.L.	IRP	SOS	T5	T10	T20	LOSSES 21+
Princeton	11-4	9	12	0-1	0-2	5-3	in Brown (42)
Georgetown	12-3	ten	20	1-1	1-2	4-2	at Loyola (25)
Michigan	10-6	14	6	1-3	3-4	3-5	Rutgers (28)
Saint Joseph	12-3	15	31	0-1	1-1	1-3	—
Fleece	13-3	16	35	0-2	0-2	1-2	at Loyola (25)
Lehigh	10-6	21	25	0-0	0-1	2-4	at Loyola (25), at Rutgers (28)
Utah	12-4	23	43	0-1	0-2	0-2	at Ohio State (21), in the Air Force (38)
Sacre Coeur	13-4	33	65	0-0	0-0	0-0	4 losses 21+
Albania	9-7	36	42	0-1	0-1	0-3	4 losses 21+

Georgetown tied 1989-94 North Carolina as the only Division I men's lacrosse team to win six consecutive conference tournament titles. The Hoyas have won every Big East tournament since 2018 (no tournament in 2020) and will make their 17th NCAA Tournament appearance after winning two overtime games in three days. Princeton Looks like a team that has been in the lacrosse playoffs for the last three weekends. The Tigers defeated Penn 18-11 to earn their third straight NCAA trip and 23rd overall.

Michigan pulverized Penn State 16-4 in the Big Ten final to earn its second straight automatic bid. The Wolverines have to fly somewhere and someone has to go to Denver. It's hard to imagine the committee passing on this pairing. Saint Joseph pulled away from Richmond to win the Atlantic 10 final. The Hawks will be making their second trip to the NCAA; their first was in 2022 when they lost to Yale.

Fleece is back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019 after throttling Delaware 15-6 in the CAA. The Tigers will make their 16th all-time NCAA appearance and sixth under coach Shawn Nadelen. Looks like Lehigh would be a good choice (both geographically and for competitive balance) to visit the No. 3 seed, which could be Johns Hopkins or Syracuse, if it wins the Patriot League final. The Mountain Hawks earned their fourth NCAA berth and first since 2021 by defeating Boston University in the Patriot League final.

Utah faced Jacksonville in the Atlantic Sun finale, and the integrity of the bracket suggests Duke is the likely first-round destination for the Utes. With the winner of the East Coast play-ins going to Notre Dame and Michigan also requiring a flight, the committee will need three flights to make up a bracket with competitive equity. Sacre Coeur will make its NCAA tournament debut after topping Manhattan in the Metro Atlantic final. The Pioneers are considering a Wednesday date for the play-in game.

Albania held off Vermont in the America East final to earn its 11th NCAA berth and first since 2018. The Great Danes are likely headed to the play-in game.