Fantasy Football: RB Preview for the 2024 Drafts

Let’s face it; running back is still the most important position in fantasy football. It offers a lot of volatility, certainly a lot of injury risk. But if you can find the right answers at running back through the draft, the wire, or the trade market, you’ll probably rule the kingdom.

This doesn’t mean our drafts should start with a heavy running back push like previous generations of drafters did. Bell cows are a dying breed in the NFL, with most teams moving toward timeshares and platoons. But I actually find the striation of running back production oddly reassuring; it means we can accept fewer passes from viable RB2 and RB3 candidates, and there appear to be more potential players to fill those roles.

While every draft plan should be sketched out in pencil so that managers can stay open-minded and ready to pivot when live opportunities arise, you'll probably want to lean into a running back mold before your draft even begins. Again, you're not locked into this plan forever; perhaps you'll call out a handy audible as your live draft meandered along. But there are three main running back builds to choose from, and most fantasy managers seem to favor one.

The old school plan is known as Robust RBwhere you select multiple players with early draft capital.

The trendy pivot of Robust RB has become Zero RBwhere you ignore the position with early picks and try to buy in later with upside picks. The volatility of the position becomes your friend.

The compromise between Robust RB and Zero RB is the Hero RB (or Anchor RB) approach, the concept where you get one strong man back to fortify your room and then postpone the hunt for a few rounds.

Note that in all three of these strategies, smart fantasy managers are likely to select multiple high-ceiling picks in the second half of the draft. It’s always bothered me when some people claim that this is a concept unique to Zero RB. Good managers understand and embrace this key idea, regardless of how their draft started.

I prefer the Hero or Anchor RB approach most years, including 2024. Maybe it’s because I like compromise. Maybe it’s because I’d rather hit a 3-wood off the tee than a driver. My preference doesn’t have to be your preference, of course. And as I’ve always said, any strategy can work if you pick the right players.

My strongest RB target

I know the editors want a pick that I insist you leave in your draft, but I don't approach the exercise entirely that way. It always depends, it's always relative. And for managers in multiple leagues, I would advise having some balance in your portfolio. No matter how great a player is, I don't want him in all my teams. My risk profile thinks otherwise.

That being said, I like the way Isiah Pacheco's career has progressed.

He strengthened his role as a receiver and his touchdown net worth in the second half of 2023has scored seven goals (and caught 31 passes) in his last eight games, including the playoffs. He's connected to a high-octane offense, the best play-caller in the league and the best quarterback in the league. You get bounce (a boutique way of saying “floor”) here, and you also get the upside of a rising talent entering his third season. Pacheco is a steal if he slides into the third round and is worth considering in Round 2.

Some other big names that would fit well with a Hero RB build:

• I'll be sure to keep Bijan Robinson on some of my roster now that the Falcons have a good quarterback and a new voice in charge of the game plan.

• If Gus Edwards could score 13 goals in Baltimore, then maybe Derrick Henry has a shot at 16-20. I know this isn't a unique take, but sometimes the wisdom of the crowd is the right whisper to listen to.

• Jonathan Taylor spread his wings in the second half of 2023 and I would follow head coach Shane Steichen into a burning building.

• The Jets might have the best roster in the NFL if we ignore everyone's quarterback, and while that's not how football works, all they need is an average Aaron Rodgers season and this team will likely make the playoffs. Breece Hall is working behind a stacked attack line and is set for success.

One sleeping RB will likely crush his ADP

At a minimum, I expect Zack Moss to open the year as a co-starter with Chase Brown, and it's possible Moss simply pushes Brown out of the way. Moss profiles as a better goal-line option, and some modern efficiency measurements Don't trust Brown as a rider. The early summer buzz pushed Brown onto many dormant pages and Moss missed the first pre-season race with a brief illness, further boosting Brown's momentum. But Moss was back with the starters on Monday; take advantage of the market's slight overcorrection.

A few more valuable backs that I like:

• Devin Singletary has a positive relationship with Brian Daboll and the depth behind him could be limited, especially if Tyrone Tracy's injury on Tuesday is serious. Singletary was the RB9 after taking over Houston's starting role midway through last year.

• Ezekiel Elliott is unlikely to surpass Rico Dowdle in efficiency metrics, but Zeke's short-yardage work in recent years has been reliable, regardless of the fact that his splash plays are gone. Elliott is also a capable pass blocker, protecting his third-down work. He's boring at this point in his career, but we'll take the boring discount.

• Chuba Hubbard and Jerome Ford are essentially stopgap backs for more talented teammates, but what if Jonathon Brooks and Nick Chubb need longer than expected to return? I like picks that can make a strong push in the opening quarter of a fantasy season, and Hubbard and Ford check that box.

One big RB likely to fall short at ADP

Opinions on Alvin Kamara will vary; my esteemed colleague Andy Behrens published a number of pro-Kamara slants this summer, and Andy is one of the sharpest players around. But this game is about respectful disagreement, and I'm going to offer a few.

Entering his 29th season, Kamara is a pocket that often makes us nervous. His fantasy position last year was mainly supported by volume 75 caches, the second most at that position and lack of efficiency. Kamara's 6.2 yards per catch was a career worst, and a 2.4-yard drop from the previous season. He also dropped to 3.9 yards per carry and didn't have a single rush of more than 20 yards. The explosiveness wasn't there, and when a player hits a career-high back nine, don't bet on a reversal of the trend.

Add it all up and we get 5.4 yards per touch, Kamara's third straight drop in that column. It's a long way from the 8.3 YPT we saw in his rookie year. And the Saints aren't trying to schedule easy touchdowns for Kamara, who has just 10 touchdowns in his last 28 games. Given his age and declining efficiency, Kamara is an easy fade for me in 2024.

Other backs I'm dropping at ADP:

• Jahmyr Gibbs is a cracking player, but he will always have to share David Montgomery, and Monty has a bit more goal-line equity. Gibbs has also been injured this summer, including a hamstring injury from Tuesday.

• It’s no fun to watch a player’s career decline, but Austin Ekeler’s ugly season last year left its mark. Now he’s attached to an offense where Brian Robinson Jr. figures to be the early-down pounder and rookie QB Jayden Daniels could easily be the team’s leading rusher.

• 1.Christian McCaffrey

• 2. Breece Hall

• 3. Sesame Robinson

• 4. Jonathan Taylor

• 5. Derrick Henry

• 6. Saquon-Barkley

• 7. Kyren Williams

• 8. Isaac Pacheco

• 9. Travis Etienne Jr.

• 10. Jahmyr Gibbs

• 11.Josh Jacobs

• 12. Joe Mixon

• 13.James Kok

• 14. Rachaad White

• 15. De'Von Achane

• 16. Kenneth Walker III

• 17. Aaron Jones

• 18. David Montgomery

• 19. Alvin Kamara

• 20.James Conner

• 21. Rhamondre Stevenson

• 22. Raheem Mostert

• 23. Najee Harris

• 24. Zamir White