Omicron scrambles what we know about immunity. So what?

Scientists are already scrambling to learn how well our existing ones work vaccination It works against this new coronavirus variant.This helps predict how much benefit will be gained from speeding up vaccination and booster campaigns around the world, and whether vaccine passports will protect people or give them a false sense. increase relief.. The reports that most Omicron cases are mild are of course reassuring to many individuals, especially the elderly and those of us who have access to booster shots rather than immunodeficiencies. But some scientists are frowned upon by such optimism for the big picture. If this continues to grow exponentially and infects millions of people in a short period of time, the healthcare system will collapse, even if only a few cases are serious. Cases are increasing rapidly in the United Kingdom and South Africa, suggesting that Omicron has an advantage over the currently predominant coronavirus variant, Delta. It may be more contagious in nature, or it may be possible to overcome immunity in infected or vaccinated persons, or in some combination of those factors. The Omicron gene is strangely different from previous varieties and appears to be distantly related to Delta. No one knows where it came from — probably because they grew up in a weakened patient for months, or because they jumped into an animal host and returned to humans.

Emma Hodcroft, a molecular epidemiologist at the University of Bern, said in an interview that there are 21 mutations in the upper part of the pesplomer. (3) Some of these mutations are alarming as they were observed in early mutants with excellent avoidance. Immunity from vaccines or past infections.

In just a few weeks, scientists have accumulated an impressive amount of preliminary data. Hodcroft said that some laboratories have assembled simulated versions of Omicron by genetically engineering other mutants to carry some of the major mutations in the mutant. Researchers can propagate these “pseudoviruses” in Petri dishes and test how well they can tolerate antibodies extracted from the blood of vaccinated and previously infected individuals.

Then last week, a South African lab made a headline with results on the behavior of actual samples of Omicron. The virus evaded some of the immunity generated by the two shots of the Pfizer vaccine, but was found to be well neutralized by antibodies taken from a patient who had been vaccinated and was previously infected with a previous variant. Almost at the same time, Pfizer announced that antibodies from booster shots helped stop Omicron in laboratory experiments, but the findings have not been peer-reviewed and outside researchers cannot see the data. was.

At a press conference Wednesday, Harvard University infectious disease expert Jonathan Glad said the details of these experiments are still unknown. Did the blood come from people who were vaccinated last month or 10 months ago? This is important because other studies have shown that antibodies to the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are significantly reduced in 6-9 months.

“In real humans, it may be more complicated, but we can probably say that we expect reinfection or breakthrough infection with Omicron than we’ve seen in other variants,” Hodcroft said. rice field.

It is not clear how serious those infections will be. Vaccines (or past infections) leave people with immune cells hidden in the bone marrow and lymph nodes. When new infections occur, they are activated and create new antibody bundles. Experiments in the laboratory cannot always capture this phenomenon.

With only partial knowledge of the dangers of Omicron, wealthy countries such as the United States can save more lives with a first dose to a low-supply country, but for everyone 3 We are beginning to urge you to give a second dose. Scientists will know more in the three to four weeks when cases of severe illness are expected to occur after Omicron has spread and the case has had time to progress. Epidemiologists can measure how fast mutants are spreading outside South Africa.

How and where the disease spreads depends on past cases of the population, vaccine intake, seasonal cycles, and other factors that no one yet understands. Past behavior has been amazing.

Early variants, including alpha, rose sharply in the eastern United States in the fall of 2020 and plummeted in the middle of winter 2021. These early variants barely touched India, but the Delta exploded suddenly in the spring of 2021. The wave also suddenly fell with Crested.

With Omicron, it is especially difficult to determine the severity of the disease without waiting for it to infect a significant number of people of different ages. The original version of SARS-CoV-2 was mild to most people — and it was very destructive.

“Even if the severity of Omicron is mild, we don’t know at this point, but if it spreads very quickly, even a small percentage of the large numbers will be large,” Hodcroft said. Our delta case rides so high that most of the west is pretty unprepared for this — we have little room to wiggle. ”

Therefore, the best scenario is either not as contagious and disappear as Omicron first appeared, or slightly more contagious and much milder than Delta. ICU.

“It would be the best we can hope for,” Hodcroft said, but that’s not what she or any other expert is betting on.

Hope is okay as long as it doesn’t inactivity or diminish the sense of urgency. Many things are now possible, such as the production of omicron-specific vaccines and better distribution to countries that are most in need of existing vaccines. If the worst scenario is executed, people need to be prepared for more restrictions.

There is some evidence that vaccination has reduced infection. In other words, the more shots you can attack around the world, the less likely the virus will encounter new variants. Probably not at all calm.

This story is published from the news agency feed without changing the text.