Health
The decline in fertility in the early stages of the pandemic is projected to recover soon
Another type of surge could be more than a year ahead of the pandemic. In other words, the number of babies is increasing rapidly.
The closure of COVID-19 initially seemed to suspend pregnancy and fertility, suggesting a new study from a major hospital system, but the trend is rapidly reversing.
Birth rates declined early in the pandemic, but a dramatic recovery is expected soon“
Molly Stout, MD, MSci, Lead Author of the Study and Dean of Maternal Fetal Medicine, Bon Boytlander Women’s Hospital, Michigan Medicine-University of Michigan
“There are already signs of a surge in babies in the summer.”
While infectious disease experts model COVID cases to predict spikes, Stout and her team do the same for pregnancy trends.
Using the electronic health records of the Michigan Medicine Pregnancy Cohort, researchers were able to model pregnancy episodes and accurately predict last year’s expected changes in pregnancy during pandemic social changes.
According to the survey, UM pregnancies gradually increased from 2017 to 2020, increasing from 4,100 to 4,620 per year. JAMA network opened. However, the number of pregnancies deviated from that pattern and decreased by about 14% from November 2020 to the spring of 2021.
Experts point out several potential factors for the decline, including economic uncertainty, lack of childcare and normal support systems, impacts on women in the workplace, and postponement of reproductive and fertility treatments.
Based on the same modeling system, the author is currently predicting a surge in births. The hospital plans to increase the number of births by 10 to 15% over what is normally expected in the summer and fall of 2021.
Speculations of the COVID baby boom have been previously reported in the media, but Stout says they are mostly speculative and not data-based.
“What we have shown here is that through modeling pregnancy within the healthcare system, we can predict the increase or decrease in fertility associated with major social changes,” she says.
“Major social changes do seem to affect reproductive choices, population growth, and fertility. We usually see the impact by modeling fertility and mortality only when changes are occurring. In fact. Change. “
It has also been noted at other times in history, such as the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic, the 1929 Great Depression, and the 2008 recession.
The ability to predict future birth trends through the University of Michigan’s team modeling system allows the healthcare system to better plan labor and delivery needs and provide the safest care for patients and their babies, Stout said. He says he hopes it will be.
“These forecasting methods can inform us of capacity, staffing needs, and planning of other downstream impacts on the hospital system,” she says.
“But partnerships between hospitals and government groups can also be used to better understand vital statistics and minimize the negative impact of pandemics and other major events on society.”
Source:
Journal reference:
Stout, MJ, Et al.(2021) COVID-19 Use of electronic medical records to estimate changes in pregnancy and fertility during a pandemic. JAMA network open.. doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.11621..
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